IDP Wednesday - Week 7

By: Justin Curry (10/21/2009)

IDP Wednesday is dedicated to the stepchildren of the Fantasy Football world - The Individual Defensive Players. It's broken up into the following four parts:

1. Go and Get 'Em - This section is dedicated to players you should think about for the rest of the way.
2. The Favorable & Formidable Fives - This section lists the five best and worst teams allowing points to the DL, LB and DB positions this year.
3. Bye Week Fillers - This section is dedicated to the players who may not be great, but should have a solid, if not spectacular week because of the situation they're in this week.
4. IDP Opportunity - The average NFL game has 125 plays (average for one team is 62 offensive plays and 63 defensive plays). This section illustrates the top and bottom five teams that are above and below that average for both offense and defense showing you which IDP players are getting more opportunities to pad their stats.
5. IDP Injury Considerations - This section is devoted to who's out and who you should get as a replacement.

Hope you enjoy and please keep in mind that for the purposes of this article, I am excluding the top 20 linebackers, top 15 defensive backs and top 10 defensive linemen as I'm assuming that they are already on someone's team.

Go and Get 'Em

DL

Previous Recommendations I Still Like:

Andre Carter, Elvis Dumervil, Ray Edwards, James Hall (hurt), Jimmy Wilkerson

This Week:

1. Andre Carter (Washington Redskins - DE) - Alright, Mr. Carter finds himself back on the 'Go and Get 'Em' list this week. If you listened to me, picked him up and put him in because of my post last week (IDP Wednesday - Week 6), you can thank me now as he returned you 7 solo tackles, 2 sacks and 1 pass deflection. Right now, he's currently averaging 3 solo's, 2 assists, 1 sack and a pass deflection on the year. Do you think someone is happy to be playing next to Albert Haynesworth or what?! The good news for those that didn't pick him up last week is that he should have another monster game against Philly this week with Jason Peters out, so go and get him already.

2. Robert Geathers/Michael Johnson (Cincinnati Bengals - DE) - The IDP world took a big hit this past week with the season ending injury to a 2009 stud - Antwan Odom. If the Bengals are going to have any chance at maintaining their Cinderella 2009 season, someone is going to have to pickup the 3 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 sack and 1 pass deflected Odom was averaging this season. In comes Robert Geathers and Odom's replacement, Michael Johnson, to try and do just that. For the foreseeable future, I would recommend anyone who had Odom to pickup Geathers first and closely monitor how Johnson does in Odom's absence. If Johnson has even one good week, I would drop Geathers, pick Johnson up and hope it works out for you. Even before doing this, however, I would go to my 'Previous Recommendations I Still Like' section above and make sure none of those guys are left on your wire, though.

Other DL Notes:

1. James Hall (St. Louis Rams - DE) - Out Indefinitely - Upgrade expectations for Leonard Little & Chris Long.
2. Patrick Kerney (Seattle Seahawks - DE) - Out Indefinitely Re-injured - Upgrade expectations for Seahawk linebackers.

LB

Previous Recommendations I Still Like:

Eric Barton, Keith Brooking, Keith Bulluck, Brian Cushing, Andra Davis, Keith Ellison, Larry Foote, Hunter Hillenmeyer, Thomas Howard, Mike Peterson, Paul Posluszney, Stephen Tulloch

This Week:

1. Will Witherspoon (Philadelphia Eagles - MLB) - I've got another good one for you, Numbers and Guts crew. If you haven't heard by the time you are reading this, Philadelphia has traded St. Louis for the services of Will Witherspoon to play their MLB position. The Eagles have been absolutely decimated by injury at the position this year, so this is a big acquisition for them. If you're worried about his new injury to his tailbone, don't be as it seems to not be that serious and he should be ready to play against the Redskins. Witherspoon still has gas left in his tank and should do very well as he's been playing in the same scheme for a number of years. If you still need convincing, consider this, take out this years production when he was moved to WLB and over the last three years, he has averaged 6 solo tackles, 1 assist per game, roughly 3 sacks, 1 forced fumble and 6 pass deflections a year. At this point in the season, it's very hard to come by MLBs that play all three downs on the waiver wire. Go and get 'em already.

2. Eric Barton (Cleveland Browns - ILB) - For all of you D'Qwell Jackson owners that are now lying down in that corner and sucking on your thumb in the fetal position because you just heard the news that he was put on injured reserve, I have something to say to you - Pick yourself up, dust yourself off and run like a bat out of hell to pickup Eric Barton!!! If you would have taken my advice during IDP Wednesday - Week 3, you wouldn't find yourself in this position and would already have the guy that you need. If you are unaware of the productive season Barton has been having, consider this, last week alone, he had 6 solo tackles, 6 assists and 1 pass deflection. On the season, he's now averaging 5 solo tackles and 3 assists. With Cleveland's inability to get their defense off of the field (now tied with Buffalo as the #1 Worst Defense to do so at an average 70 plays a game) and the latest news on Jackson, Barton should now be upgraded to have a monster 2009 season...maybe even finish in the Top 5 of all LBs in tackles when it's all said and done this year. Though Green Bay seems to be very stingy when awarding the ILB position IDP points this year, Barton should be able to easily buck that trend this week. If Barton isn't available or your loaded at the LB position already, have some bench space and can take some chances, now might be the time for you to start thinking about picking up Kaluka Maiava and hoping he becomes one of those guys that "comes out of nowhere" and starts getting crazy tackle numbers (10 to 15 solo tackles a game) each week. I can tell you that I plan to.

3. David Hawthorne/LeRoy Hill (Seattle Seahawks - MLB) - Speaking of guys that "come out of nowhere", if you miss out on the Witherspoon/Barton sweepstakes, don't sweat it because there might be some other good options in Seattle for you. With Lofa Tatupu out for the rest of the season, someone is going to have to get that production in the linebacking corps. in Seattle. When Tatupu missed time earlier this year in Week 3 against the Bears, Hawthorne rewarded people who took a chance on him with 15 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 interception and 1 pass deflection! Was this merely an aberration or was this a reincarnation of David Harris for Jonathan Vilma circa 2007? Honestly, I don't know, but I can tell you that I took notice of the performance and am anxiously awaiting to see what happens next for him. If it does turn out to be merely an aberration, LeRoy Hill will be the one you want going forward in Seattle, though, as he has shown in the past that he can be a tackling machine. Note - Remember, Seattle is on a bye this week, so Hawthorne won't see action until Week 8.

4. Calvin Pace (New York Jets - OLB) - Since Pace returned from suspension, he is averaging 6 solo tackles a game. The injury to Kris Jenkins that put him out for the rest of the year should only help these numbers (think what the linebackers in Tennessee are doing this year without Albert Haynesworth as an example). If you're in a deep league and nothing seems to be available, Pace is your guy.

Other LB Notes:

1. Nick Roach/Hunter Hillenmeyer (Chicago Bears - MLB) - Hillenmeyer hasn't practiced so far this week and Nick Roach is looking like he will be the MLB in Chicago again this week.
2. DeAndre Levy (Detroit Lions - WLB) - Has replaced Ernie Sims as the starting WLB for the Lions.
3. Justin Durant (Jacksonville Jaguars - MLB) - Should be ready to go after his bye this week. If another owner was impatient and dropped him, go and get him immediately.
4. Ricky Brown (Oakland Raiders - SLB) - John Alston replaced Brown this week and had a slow day, but his production should pickup.
5. Kris Jenkins (New York Jets - NT) - His season ending injury should upgrade all the Jets linebackers' production moving forward.
6. Omar Gaither (Philadelphia Eagles - MLB) - Injured - Will Witherspoon will be the starting MLB going forward.
7. D'Qwell Jackson (Cleveland Browns - ILB) - Injured Reserve - Eric Barton is the one you want to replace him.
8. Scott Fujita (New Orleans Saints - LB) - Injured and Might Miss Time - Upgrade Vilma & Shanle's production expectations.
9. Pisa Tinoisama (Chicago Bears - SLB) - Injured and Might Miss Time - Upgrade Briggs & Roach's production expectations.
10. Lofa Tatupu (Seattle Seahawks - MLB) - Out the Rest of Year - D. Hawthorne or L. Hill are the replacements to get.

DB

Previous Recommendations I Still Like:

Jordan Babineaux, Atari Bigby, Tyvon Branch, C.C. Brown, Mike Brown, Nate Clements, Reed Doughty, Louis Delmas, Abram Elam, Chris Harris, Sabby Piscitelli, Bernard Pollard, Bob Sanders, Donte Whitner (Injured)/George Wilson

This Week:

1. Bob Sanders (Indianapolis Colts - SS) - As mentioned last week, this is the week Sanders targeted to come back from his injury. Make sure to pick him up if you have room and hope he plays this week. Obviously, monitor his progress throughout the week, though. If he practices Friday in full, he will play. If not, find another option because he probably won't.

2. Erik Coleman (Atlanta Falcons - SS) - If you take out his first game of the year, Coleman is averaging 5 solo tackles, 2 assists and has one forced fumble. With him and his Falcon buddies going to Dallas this week to get a shot at their above average return for safety numbers, Coleman should continue these types of numbers for the foreseeable future.

3. Donte Whitner/Bryan Scott/Jarius Byrd/George Wilson (Buffalo Bills - S) - As mentioned in the 'IDP Opportunity' section of my IDP Wednesday - Week 6 post last week, the Bills defense is currently averaging a pace to get 112 more total defensive plays than the league average this year (#1 in the NFL). With their poor defensive play in general, both safety positions should be busy every game they play in for the rest of the season. For this reason, I am implementing a strategy of holding onto Bryan Scott by putting him on my bench until he gets healthy and putting in whomever is going to start at SS in his place for that week until he comes back. Once he becomes healthy and is going to start, I will be putting him back in for the duration of the season to cash in on the monster numbers he should accumulate the rest of the way (especially for his Week 15 match-up with New England).

Other DB Notes:

1. Troy Polamalu (Pittsburgh Steelers - SS) - Came back last week.
2. Donte Whitner (Buffalo Bills - FS) - Came back last week and then re-injured himself and sat out the second half.
3. Michael Lewis (San Francisco 49ers - SS) - Out indefinitely.
4. Antoine Winfield (Minnesota Vikings - CB) - Out Indefinitely - Upgrade expectations for Cedric Griffin & watch returns of Benny Sapp/Karl Paymah.
5. Roy Williams (Cincinnati Bengals - SS) - Should be back this week.

Favorable & Formidable Fives

Favorable (Ordered w/ Best Team to Play First)

Rank	DL	LB	DB
1	Green Bay	Cleveland	Pittsburgh
2	Miami	New England	Baltimore
3	Kansas City	Miami	New Orleans
4	New York Jets	Detroit	Dallas
5	Carolina	Indianapolis	Tampa Bay

Formidable (Ordered w/ Worst Team to Play First)

Rank	DL	LB	DB
1	Denver	Dallas	San Francisco
2	Cincinnati	Philadelphia	Oakland
3	Atlanta	Green Bay	Cleveland
4	Dallas	Baltimore	Philadelphia
5	Indianapolis	Denver	Chicago

Bye Week Fillers (Good for This Week)

Byes Week 7: Baltimore, Denver, Detroit, Jacksonville, Seattle, Tennessee

DL

1. Richard Seymour (Oakland Raiders - DE) - Seymour had 4 solo tackles and 2 sacks against Philadelphia last week. In come a defensive end's dream - The New York Jets - this week. His production from the Philly game should carry over to this week. If he's available and you don't like your current options, he could be the man you're looking for.

2. Andre Carter (Washington Redskins - DE) - You already know why I love him from above. This week he gets the Jason Peters-less Philadelphia Eagles. For more reasons why I love him this week, just look what the guy above him here (Richard Seymour) did when that happens. Keep in mind, McNabb was sacked 6 times last week against Oakland and Jason Peters injury was a major reason for that.

LB

1. Nick Barnett (Green Bay Packers - ILB) - In his last two games, he has averaged 8 solo tackles, 2 assists and has a 1/2 a sack. This week, he gets Cleveland who is the number one team in the NFL for an ILB to play thus far this year in IDP. He should be gold for you if you choose him for your lineup.

2. Jonathan Vilma (New Orleans Saints - ILB) - With last week's totals of 1 solo tackle and 3 assists, I'm here to tell you to step away from the ledge on Vilma. This week, he gets the Miami Dolphins (the number three overall team in the NFL for an ILB to play). He should get back on track this week against them and end with a very productive day.

3. Geno Hayes (Tampa Bay Buccaneers - OLB) - Though Barrett Ruud should be the one having a monster day (so get him first if he's available), Hayes should also get in on the action and become more than serviceable for this week. The Patriots are the second best team for the LB position to play this year, thus far. If your IDP wire has been depleted, Hayes is your man this week.

DB

1. Tanard Jackson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers - FS) - As if his 4 solo tackles, 1 assist, 1 pick-6, 1 forced fumble and 1 pass deflection day last week against the Panthers wasn't enough, expect a very nice encore for Mr. Jackson against the Patriots this week. If you haven't noticed, the Patriots are in a groove right now on offense. If you haven't noticed, the Bucs defense isn't. The last line of defense for the Bucs is going to be busy all day this Sunday at 1:00 p.m. EDT.

2. Troy Polamalu (Pittsburgh Steelers - SS) - Polamalu had a pretty good return last week against Cleveland with 2 solo tackles, 2 assists, 1 interception and 1 pass deflection; however, this week he gets Minnesota who are a Top 5 team to play if you're a SS. Expect even better numbers for him when this game is over.

3. Cedric Griffin (Minnesota Vikings - CB) - A 10 solo tackle effort last week, an Antoine Winfield injury and a pass-happy Steelers offense are all the reasons I love Griffin this week. If he's available, he's going to have a monster day, so get him and put him in.

IDP Opportunity

As mentioned at the beginning of this post, these four charts are to illustrate which players are actually getting more opportunities to fill up their stat sheet just because they are on a certain team.

As far as the offensive play portion (first two charts), this week I was going to write about how you should use caution when using any DB that plays Oakland this year, but it appears I have been beat to the punch by another writer from last week (see 'The Black Hole of IDP' section of the IDP Report: Week 6 post which has some very good analysis on that point by Shawn McKeown from Rototimes.com). So, offensively, what can be gained from these first two charts along with the 'Favorable & Formidable Fives' section is that you want your safeties to go up against New England, New Orleans and Seattle. You want your linebackers to go up against Cleveland, New England, Miami and Indianapolis. If you have a DB going up against Oakland, bench him. Also be cautious with any DBs playing San Francisco, as well, as they will have to make the most of very few opportunities on average when they play them.

As far as the defensive play portion (bottom two charts), if one of your IDPers plays on Buffalo, Cleveland, Tennessee, Oakland or Indianapolis, this is primarily why they've been doing so well. If one of your IDPers plays on the Giants, Miami, New England, Pittsburgh or Carolina and his name isn't Thomas Davis, this is primarily why he hasn't. Please adjust your rosters accordingly.

Most Amount of Offensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.5)

Rank	Team	Plays	Passes	Rushes
1	New England	72	42	28
2	Miami	68	29	37
3	New Orleans	66	32	35
4	Seattle	66	38	26
5	New York Giants	66	32	33

Least Amount of Offensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.5)

Rank	Team	Plays	Passes	Rushes
1	Oakland	54	25	27
2	Washington	57	30	25
3	San Francisco	57	29	25
4	Tampa Bay	59	35	23
5	St. Louis	59	33	25

Most Amount of Defensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.7)

Rank	Team	Plays	Passes	Rushes
1	Buffalo	70	35	35
2	Cleveland	70	35	35
3	Tennessee	69	40	28
4	Oakland	68	32	34
5	Indianapolis	67	40	27

Least Amount of Defensive Plays per Game Avg. (League Avg. is 62.7)

Rank	Team	Plays	Passes	Rushes
1	New York Giants	53	26	25
2	Miami	53	29	24
3	New England	57	33	24
4	Pittsburgh	57	35	24
5	Carolina	58	27	31

IDP Injury Considerations

Player	Pos	Return	You Want
Atari Bigby	SS	Returned Last Week
Troy Polamalu	SS	Returned Last Week
Paul Posluszny	MLB	Returned Last Week
Keith Ellison	WLB	Returned Last Week
Patrick Kerney	DE	Returned Last Week
Hunter Hillenmeyer	MLB	Might Return This Week	Nick Roach
Cortland Finnegan	CB	Might Return This Week	Elsewhere
Donte Whitner	FS	Might Return This Week	Jairus Byrd
Roy Williams	SS	Might Return This Week	Chinendum Ndukwe
Bryan Scott	SS	Might Return This Week	George Wilson
Gerald Sensabaugh	SS	Might Return This Week	Pat Watkins
Bob Sanders	SS	Might Return This Week	Melvin Bullitt
Leroy Hill	WLB	Out Until Week 8	Will Herring
Nick Harper	CB	Out Until Week 11 to 13	Elsewhere
Ricky Brown	SLB	Out Indefinitely	John Alston
Justin Durant	MLB	Out Indefinitely	Elsewhere
Michael Lewis	SS	Out Indefinitely	Reggie Smith
Kris Jenkins	NT	Out Indefinitely	Elsewhere
Omar Gaither	MLB	Out Indefinitely	Jeremiah Trotter
James Hall	DE	Out Indefinitely	Chris Long
Scott Fujita	LB	Out Indefinitely	Troy Evans
Pisa Tinoisama	SLB	Out Indefinitely	Nick Roach
Antoine Winfield	CB	Out Indefinitely	Benny Sapp
Patrick Kerney	DE	Out Indefinitely	Elsewhere
Brian Urlacher	MLB	Out Rest of Season	Nick Roach
Jermaine Phillips	FS	Out Rest of Season	Sabby Piscitelli
Daniel Bullocks	FS	Out Rest of Season	Louis Delmas
Kenny Phillips	SS	Out Rest of Season	C.C. Brown
Michael Boley	WLB	Out Rest of Season	Chase Blackburn
Antwan Odom	DE	Out Rest of Season	Michael Johnson
Lofa Tatupu D'Qwell Jackson	MLB ILB	Out Rest of Season Out Rest of Season	David Hawthorne Eric Barton

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Remember to Bookmark or Favorite us and check back every Wednesday around noon for new insightful posts on who to get for your IDP leagues this year. We'll be here all season to answer any of your questions (click the link in the top right corner) and help your teams any way we can to a championship.

-Justin Curry