IDP Wednesday: 2009 Fantasy Football Recap

By: Justin Curry (02/10/2010)

Well, another fantasy football season is in the books. Hopefully you were able to take the advice from this site and others and win yourself a championship.

I was in three leagues this year and made it to the playoffs in all of them, but I found myself coming up just short as I lost in the championship game in two of them (thank you Mr. Curtis Lofton and Peyton Manning).

Though I'm still a little bitter, overall, it was a great year. This post is intended to recap the season from an IDP perspective so nothing will be forgotten when draft time starts back up in August.

I've run the numbers for you on all the IDPers from this season by category (DL, LB, DB) and compiled a list of what each averaged each game for the entire year, Weeks One through Five, Weeks Six through 11, and Weeks 12 through 16. I've also included one of my favorite sections—IDP Opportunity —to show which teams had the most and fewest opportunities to pad their stats this year.

Using My Preferred IDP Scoring System

Solo	Assists	Sack	Int	FF	PD	TD
2	1	4	4	3	2	6

Best DLs (Average Per Game Played)

After running the numbers, it was no surprise to see Antwan Odom with the best overall average this year. Anyone that watched him play this season saw just how truly dominant he was before his season ended. With that said, I believe expectations should be downgraded a bit on him to repeat his dominance in 2010 when healthy.

Other interesting items: Though Jared Allen ended No. 2 overall, Will Smith was actually the only one that ranked in the top 15 DLs for all three subsections when you break down averages over the three trimesters of the entire season. Definitely keep this in mind next year when looking for someone who consistently performs over the course of the entire year.

Rank	Player
1	Antwan Odom
2	Jared Allen
3	Justin Tuck
4	Andre Carter
5	Terrell Suggs
6	Will Smith
7	Trent Cole
8	Aaron Schobel
9	Julius Peppers
10	David Bowens
11	C.J. Ah You
12	Ray Edwards
13	Darnell Dockett
14	Robert Mathis
15	Marcus Stroud
16	Kyle Williams
17	Mario Williams
18	Chris Kelsay
19	Calais Campbell
20	Louis Leonard

Best LBs (Average Per Game Played)

No surprise here—Patrick Willis ended as the No. 1 overall LB of the 2009 season. He is simply a man amongst boys at this point and will be for the foreseeable future. Other interesting points: Don't forget the power of the weakside linebacker position in Carolina. Whoever started there seemed to produce very well alongside Jon Beason.

When looking at the three subsections, Willis was the only top 15 performer in all three. Thomas Davis, Paul Posluszny, Jon Beason, Brian Cushing, London Fletcher, Ray Lewis, and D.J. Williams were in the top 15 for two of them and should all be considered upper echelon guys in 2010.

Also, I will preach this just like I have all year: YOU WANT JUSTIN DURANT on your squad in 2010!

Rank	Player
1	Patrick Willis
2	Thomas Davis
3	Paul Posluszny
4	Jon Beason
5	DQwell Jackson
6	Brian Cushing
7	London Fletcher
8	Ray Lewis
9	Curtis Lofton
10	D.J. Williams
11	Kirk Morrison
12	Barrett Ruud
13	James Laurinaitis
14	David Harris
15	Michael Boley
16	Justin Durant
17	Keith Bulluck
18	David Hawthorne
19	Lance Briggs
20	Jonathan Vilma

Best DBs (Average Per Game Played)

After looking at the numbers on DBs, a lot of unexpected names (if you don't truly follow IDP) came up to the top of the list this year. This is a great lesson on where you can really do damage in your draft next year. Whoever starts at SS for Oakland and Buffalo in 2010 should be high on your list to draft.

Other takeaways: Bernard Pollard is simply a beast. I don't see that fact being any different in 2010. Also, hopefully you were able to jump on the Bryan Scott train this year. Next year should be good for him as well.

Speaking of Scott, only he and Tyvon Branch found themselves in the top 15 every part of this year. Pollard (not really fair because he didn't have a home for a while until he went to Houston), Brian Dawkins, Charles Woodson, and Antoine Winfield found themselves in the top 15 for two of them. All of these guys should be on your radar in the 2010 draft as well.

Even though he's a CB (those that regularly read my blog know how much I try to stay away from them), I also really like Nick Harper in 2010.

Rank	Player
1	Bryan Scott
2	Bernard Pollard
3	Kenny Phillips
4	Tyvon Branch
5	Brian Dawkins
6	Charles Woodson
7	Nick Harper
8	Yeremiah Bell
9	Dashon Goldson
10	Oshiomogho Atogwe
11	Tanard Jackson
12	Antoine Winfield
13	Roman Harper
14	Jordan Babineaux
15	Erik Coleman
16	Jacob Lacey
17	Tracy Porter
18	Eric Weddle
19	Antoine Bethea
20	Mike Brown

Seasonal Breakdown

Weeks 1 through 5 (Top 15)

Rank	DL	LB	DB
1	Jared Allen	Thomas Davis	Troy Polamalu
2	Trent Cole	Patrick Willis	Bryan Scott
3	Antwan Odom	Curtis Lofton	Kenny Phillips
4	Julius Peppers	Stephen Cooper	Danieal Manning
5	Marcus Stroud	London Fletcher	Antoine Bethea
6	Justin Tuck	DQwell Jackson	Eric Weddle
7	Robert Mathis	James Harrison	Brian Dawkins
8	Terrell Suggs	Kirk Morrison	Tyvon Branch
9	Jimmy Wilkerson	Mike Peterson	Donte Whitner
10	Andre Carter	Ray Lewis	Charles Woodson
11	Adewale Ogunleye	David Harris	Roman Harper
12	Kroy Biermann	Elvis Dumervil	Chris Harris
13	Will Smith	Stephen Tulloch	Antoine Winfield
14	Aaron Schobel	D.J. Williams	Chris Hope
15	Greg Ellis	Justin Durant	Derek Cox

Weeks 6 through 10 (Top 15)

Rank	DL	LB	DB
1	David Bowens	Brian Cushing	Leon Hall
2	Andre Carter	David Hawthorne	Tanard Jackson
3	Greg White	Paul Posluszny	Erik Coleman
4	Ray Edwards	Thomas Davis	Bryan Scott
5	Robaire Smith	Clint Session	Reed Doughty
6	Jared Allen	Patrick Willis	Roman Harper
7	Chris Kelsay	Nick Barnett	Dashon Goldson
8	Kevin Williams	Keith Bulluck	Danieal Manning
9	Brett Keisel	Julian Peterson	Bernard Pollard
10	Robert Mathis	Calvin Pace	Ko Simpson
11	Julius Peppers	Justin Durant	Tyvon Branch
12	Anthony Hargrove	Lawrence Timmons	Tracy Porter
13	Jonathan Babineaux	Ray Lewis	C.C. Brown
14	Will Smith	Jon Beason	Cary Williams
15	Marques Douglas	D.J. Williams	Jairus Byrd

Weeks 11 through 16 (Top 15)

Rank	DL	LB	DB
1	Justin Tuck	Jon Beason	Bernard Pollard
2	Aaron Schobel	Patrick Willis	Antoine Winfield
3	Sedrick Ellis	London Fletcher	Bryan Scott
4	Will Smith	Paul Posluszny	Tyvon Branch
5	Trent Cole	Hunter Hillenmeyer	LaRon Landry
6	Kyle Williams	James Laurinaitis	Brian Dawkins
7	Anthony Adams	Jonathan Vilma	Charles Woodson
8	Darnell Dockett	Lamarr Woodley	Jordan Babineaux
9	Mario Williams	Brian Cushing	Yeremiah Bell
10	Derrick Harvey	Geno Hayes	Nick Harper
11	Tony Brown	Michael Boley	Brent Grimes
12	Daniel Muir	Demorrio Williams	Malcolm Jenkins
13	Mathias Kiwanuka	Gary Brackett	Tracy Porter
14	Trevor Scott	Barrett Ruud	Adrian Wilson
15	Shaun Ellis	Clint Session	Mike Brown

IDP Opportunity

When looking at the total number of defensive plays for each team, the numbers found were as interesting as I thought they would be earlier in the year. For the 2009 season, the Buffalo Bills' defensive starters played 1,086 plays. The Minnesota Vikings only played 940.

If you do the math, that's a 146-play difference, meaning the Buffalo starters had about two games more worth of opportunities to pad their stats than Minnesota players. This is one of the reasons I've always preached that, when all other factors are equal, go for the player on the team that is worse or teams with high-potent offenses that score quickly as the tiebreaker.

Most Amount of Total Defensive Plays in 2009

Rank	Team	Plays
1	Buffalo Bills	1,086
2	Indianapolis Colts	1,084
3	Cleveland Browns	1,072
4	Kansas City Chiefs	1,062
5	Seattle Seahawks	1,050
6	New Orleans Saints	1,044
7	Tampa Bay Buccaneers	1,039
8	Arizona Cardinals	1,038
9	Tennessee Titans	1,038
10	Philadelphia Eagles	1,037

Least Amount of Defensive Plays in 2009

Rank	Team	Plays
1	Minnesota Vikings	940
2	New England Patriots	941
3	Green Bay Packers	948
4	New York Giants	953
5	New York Jets	953
6	Pittsburgh Steelers	967
7	Miami Dolphins	968
8	Houston Texans	974
9	Carolina Panthers	976
10	Dallas Cowboys	979

Well, that's it for this week. Make sure to check back every now and again as I will post when big news regarding the IDP world happens (NFL draft, 2010 Fantasy Football drafts are about to begin, etc.).

Justin Curry

IDP Wednesday: Week 16

By: Justin Curry (12/23/2009)

Welcome to the final IDP Wednesday for the 2009 NFL season. It's been fun bringing you this article every week. I hope you have found it insightful and that it helped you out throughout the year as that was the ultimate goal. If you're reading this, you're probably in the championship and need this information more than ever as the person you're up against obviously knows what they are doing, as well. So, with that said, lets get to the picks. I've been on fire of late, so hopefully I can keep it up for one more.

Similar to the last couple of weeks, I have listed the Favorable Five and the Formidable Five teams over the last five weeks of the season at each position and shown whom that team faces this week. I've also added who has been the best teams to play for the entire year at each position. For those not interested in the charts and just want the recommendations, I will start with the Analysis at the beginning this week instead of the end for you.

Quick Note: Please keep in mind, the Analysis portion doesn't take into consideration weather conditions, if it's a divisional game, or if it's a nationally televised game - all factors that have seemed to inconsistently skew the numbers for a given team. For example, if the wind is howling, you can expect there to be an inordinate amount of running plays by both teams, divisional teams now have film on the other team to change game plans, etc., and some players seem to step it up a notch when they know they are on the big stage. With that said, all should be considered when you are planning on using a player each week. I just want to make sure you remember.

So, as I have throughout this year, I will be using the following point system for my analysis:

My Preferred IDP Scoring System

Solo	Assists	Sack	Int	FF	PD	TD
2	1	4	4	3	2	6

Analysis

DL

Expected Player Production Better Than Normal

Justin Tuck	Should be a Monster
Dwight Freeney	If he plays entire game

Expected Player Production Worse Than Normal

Shaun Ellis
Marques Douglas

MLB/ILB

Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal

DeMeco Ryans

Nick Barnett

Justin Durant

Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal

Larry Foote

WLB/OLB

Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal

Clay Matthews

Aaron Kampman

Matt Roth

Kamerion Wimbley

Jason Trusnik

James Anderson

Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal

Anthony Spencer

DeMarcus Ware

Daryl Smith

Clint Ingram

Calvin Pace

Bryan Thomas

S

Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal

Quintin Mikell

Sean Jones

Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal

Brian Dawkins

Renaldo Hill

CB

Expected Player Performance Better Than Normal

Vontae Davis

Richard Marshall

Expected Player Performance Worse Than Normal

Chris Johnson

Nnamdi Asomugha

Eric Wright

Good luck to all of you this week on winning your championship. For those that are data-junkies like myself, here is more information to wrap your brains around for you to make your decisions on who to play this week:

DL (Team to Left is Ranked Team, Team to Right is Opponent)

Over the Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1	NYJ	@IND
2	STL	@ARI
3	BUF	@ATL
4	@NE	JAC
5	CAR	@NYG

Formidable Five

1	@IND	NYJ
2	@NO	TB
3	@GB	SEA
4	TB	@NO
5	BAL	@PIT

Over the Entire Year

Favorable Five

1	@GB	SEA
2	NYJ	@IND
3	CAR	@NYG
4	KC	@CIN
5	@SF	DET

Formidable Five

1	@IND	NYJ
2	DAL	@WAS
3	@ATL	BUF
4	@NYG	CAR
5	@CIN	KC

MLB/ILB (Team to Left is Ranked Team, Team to Right is Opponent)

Over the Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1	@NE	JAC
2	@MIA	HOU
3	SEA	@GB
4	JAC	@NE
5	DAL	@WAS

Formidable Five

1	@SF	DET
2	MIN	@CHI
3	CAR	@NYG
4	SD	@TEN
5	@GB	SEA

Over the Entire Year

Favorable Five

1	@NE	JAC
2	@MIA	HOU
3	SEA	@GB
4	@NO	TB
5	NYJ	@IND

Formidable Five

1	@GB	SEA
2	SD	@TEN
3	@ATL	BUF
4	@SF	DET
5	@PHI	DEN

WLB/OLB (Team to Left is Ranked Team, Team to Right is Opponent)

Over the Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1	SEA	@GB
2	STL	@ARI
3	OAK	@CLE
4	@NO	TB
5	@NYG	CAR

Formidable Five

1	@WAS	DAL
2	@NE	BUF
3	DET	@SF
4	@MIA	HOU
5	@IND	NYJ

Over the Entire Year

Favorable Five

1	SEA	@GB
2	@NYG	CAR
3	DET	@SF
4	@CLE	OAK
5	OAK	@CLE

Formidable Five

1	@IND	NYJ
2	@PHI	DEN
3	NYJ	@IND
4	@WAS	DAL
5	@NE	JAC

S (Team to Left is Ranked Team, Team to Right is Opponent)

Over the Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1	DEN	@PHI
2	@CIN	KC
3	STL	@ARI
4	TB	@NO
5	DAL	@WAS

Formidable Five

1	@PHI	DEN
2	@WAS	DAL
3	@ATL	BUF
4	BAL	@PIT
5	@NE	JAC

Over the Entire Year

Favorable Five

1	@NO	TB
2	DEN	@PHI
3	@NYG	CAR
4	SEA	@GB
5	@CIN	KC

Formidable Five

1	BUF	@ATL
2	OAK	@CLE
3	@SF	DET
4	@PHI	DEN
5	JAC	@NE

CB (Team to Left is Ranked Team, Team to Right is Opponent)

Over the Last Five Weeks

Favorable Five

1	@CIN	KC
2	HOU	@MIA
3	@WAS	DAL
4	DET	@SF
5	@NYG	CAR

Formidable Five

1	@CLE	OAK
2	@IND	NYJ
3	OAK	@CLE
4	JAC	@NE
5	BUF	@ATL

Over the Entire Year

Favorable Five

1	@PIT	BAL
2	@ARI	STL
3	@NYG	CAR
4	HOU	@MIA
5	BAL	@PIT

Formidable Five

1	@CLE	OAK
2	OAK	@CLE
3	KC	@CIN
4	@TEN	SD
5	@SF	DET

You can always checkout the latest posts from Justin Curry at NumbersAndGuts.com